1 in 31 is not one story

CDC ADDM identified autism in 1 in 31 eight-year-olds across 16 sites in 2022. That is 32.2 children per 1,000. The range was 9.7 per 1,000 in Laredo, Texas (about 1 in 103) to 53.1 in California (about 1 in 19). This is not a U.S. census.

The CDC autism 2025 community report is a 2022 surveillance year, published April 17, 2025. Sixteen communities. Not every county. Not a door-to-door count of the country.

What “identified” means

A child met the ADDM case definition if records showed an autism diagnosis, autism special education eligibility, or an autism ICD code. That is identification. It is not a study of who “has” autism in every house on the block.

CDC also says research has not shown that living in a high-identification community raises a child’s risk of developing autism. The map is a map of how communities find children, write it down, and offer services.

The sites do not agree

California was 53.1 per 1,000. Pennsylvania was 47.4. Wisconsin was 38.4. Georgia sat near the network average at 32.6. Maryland was 26.3. Indiana was 18.3. The two Texas sites were 19.5 (Austin area) and 9.7 (Laredo).

Same year. Same case definition. Not the same map. If someone treats “1 in 31 autism CDC” as a single American child, they are flattening sixteen different service systems into a slogan.

Boys, girls, and a reversed racial pattern

Across the 16 sites, prevalence was 49.2 per 1,000 among boys and 14.3 per 1,000 among girls. That is 3.4 to 1. The ratio has narrowed since 2018. The gap in raw counts has not.

White children were no longer the highest bar. Prevalence was 27.7 per 1,000 among White children, 31.9 among multiracial children, 33.0 among Hispanic children, 36.6 among Black children, 37.5 among American Indian or Alaska Native children, and 38.2 among Asian or Pacific Islander children.

That is an identification story. It is not a race-as-cause story. For years ADDM found the highest rates among White children and in higher-income neighborhoods. Those patterns flipped as more previously underserved groups got into the records. CDC still flags leftover gaps: among children who have autism in the file, Black children were more often also classified with intellectual disability, and some lower-income Hispanic communities still sit at the bottom of the map.

What “epidemic” gets wrong

An epidemic headline treats a rise in identified eight-year-olds as if every extra name on a chart were a new injury. ADDM is watching how clinics and schools write autism down. Prevalence among eight-year-olds was higher in 2022 than in 2020 at nine of the eleven sites that ran both years. Younger cohorts were also identified earlier. That can mean more need for services across a life. It does not mean a neighborhood causes autism.

The CDC autism rate 2025 number is a 16-site average. Ask “1 in 31 where?” before you use it as a national fact.

Subscribe to Autism Digest if you want the next paper when the following ADDM cycle lands. We will keep the range on the page.

Sources

Kelly A. Shaw, Susan Williams, Mary E. Patrick, and colleagues, “Prevalence and Early Identification of Autism Spectrum Disorder Among Children Aged 4 and 8 Years — Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network, 16 Sites, United States, 2022,” MMWR Surveillance Summaries, April 17, 2025 / 74(SS-2):1–22. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/74/ss/ss7402a1.htm

Matthew J. Maenner, Zachary Warren, Ashley Robinson Williams, and colleagues, “Prevalence and Characteristics of Autism Spectrum Disorder Among Children Aged 8 Years — Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network, 11 Sites, United States, 2020,” MMWR Surveillance Summaries, 2023. 2020 figure: 1 in 36. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/72/ss/ss7202a1.htm

Matthew J. Maenner, Kelly A. Shaw, Amanda V. Bakian, and colleagues, “Prevalence and Characteristics of Autism Spectrum Disorder Among Children Aged 8 Years — Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network, 11 Sites, United States, 2018,” MMWR Surveillance Summaries, 2021. 2018 figure: 1 in 44. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/ss/ss7011a1.htm

Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network Surveillance Year 2000 Principal Investigators, CDC. 2000 figure: 1 in 150. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/ss5601a1.htm